A string of conservative victories in foreign elections begs the question of whether or not the factors that led to them are predictive of what might happen in our general election. Geert Wilders—leader of the far-right Party for Freedom (PVV)—recently won a huge victory in the Dutch elections. The PVV won 37 out of 150 seats and is now the most influential party in the Dutch parliament. This election was called when outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s coalition fell apart after disagreeing on how to reduce the flow of asylum seekers into the country. Wilders seized this opportunity by campaigning on promises to halt the acceptance of asylum seekers and close borders to migrants.
Argentina recently elected right-wing libertarian Javier Milei as its new president. Before the election, Argentina had experienced a staggering 160 percent annual inflation rate. The combination of high inflation and severe droughts that impacted agriculture has led the Argentine peso to collapse against the U.S. dollar. Milei promised to dismantle the country’s central bank, peg the Argentine peso to the U.S. dollar in an attempt to stabilize the currency, and shrink many regulatory agencies in government.
Economic health and immigration are the two key factors that influenced these right-wing victories. Given the relatively high inflation the U.S. has experienced as well as the southern border crisis, one might assume a similar presidential election outcome to that of the Netherlands and Argentina in November. This, however, would be shortsighted.
Concerning the economy and inflation, higher prices seem to be here to stay and are having an impact on the consumer at the grocery store, at the gas pump, and online. However, the Federal Reserve has been effective in getting inflation rates nearly back to normal while avoiding a recession (the current unemployment rate is 3.7%). The Fed has also promised three interest rate cuts in 2024 after rates were aggressively increased to fight inflation. The Biden administration is also taking action when it comes to immigration: Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas recently met and asked Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador for his country’s help with the southern border.
The general election will come down to who wins the swing states. While we have seen the Netherlands and Argentina, as well as other countries in Europe (e.g., Germany) and South America, shift right over economic and immigration issues, it is by no means a foregone conclusion that a Republican (presumably President Trump) will win in November. It will come down to how voters, primarily in these six swing states, feel about the economy and their prospects as well as order on the southern border over the next eight to nine months.
